Machine Learning for Crypto Portfolio Management Case Study: Week 3

This was the third week of our case study that will evaluate the application of machine learning for portfolio management. The methodology for this study was first outlined in our previous article.

Each week, we will publish an update to highlight interesting events that took place over the last week, break down the performance metrics from the last week, and provide any changes that will be made to each portfolio.

Week 3 unfolds with Nomics predictions taking a clear lead, followed closely still by the Smart Contracts index.

Week 3 unfolds with Nomics predictions taking a clear lead, followed closely still by the Smart Contracts index.

Shrimpy ML Strategy

The Shrimpy ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Shrimpy ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

At +4.07%, Shrimpy predictions came in last for performance during week 3.

At +4.07%, Shrimpy predictions came in last for performance during week 3.

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the third week of this study.

  1. Labs Group (LABS): Projected 7-day profit: +168.08%

  2. Telos (TLOS): Projected 7-day profit: +130.41%

  3. Chain Guardians: Projected 7-day profit: +124.12%

  4. Avalanche (AVAX): Projected 7-day profit: +86.13%

  5. Verasity (VRA): Projected 7-day profit: +78.93%

  6. Arcs (ARX): Projected 7-day profit: +53.59%

  7. Loopring (LRC): Projected 7-day profit: +53.46%

  8. WOM Protocol (WOM): Projected 7-day profit: +52.11%

  9. Suku (SUKU): Projected 7-day profit: +42.78%

  10. DigitalBits (XDB): Projected 7-day profit: +30.23%

The average projected 7-day profit is +81.98%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the fourth week of this study.

  1. Bitcoin Cash ABC(BCHA): Projected 7-day profit: +174.14%

  2. Maxonrow(MXW): Projected 7-day profit: +139.22%

  3. LABS Group(LABS): Projected 7-day profit: +112.90%

  4. Mask Network(MASK): Projected 7-day profit: +112.54%

  5. Opacity(OPCT): Projected 7-day profit: +67.91%

  6. Wax(WAX): Projected 7-day profit: +63.51%

  7. Terra(LUNA): Projected 7-day profit: +59.55%

  8. Revain(R): Projected 7-day profit: +39.88%

  9. Avalanche(AVAX): Projected 7-day profit: +38.15%

  10. Unilayer(LAYER): Projected 7-day profit: +33.18%

The average projected 7-day profit is +84.09%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Shrimpy ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Try the Shrimpy ML Forecasts

Disclaimer: Shrimpy’s price forecasts are for entertainment purposes only.

Disclaimer: Shrimpy’s price forecasts are for entertainment purposes only.

Shrimpy offers machine learning price forecasts for all customers. These forecasts are generated using our own Machine Learning models, and price forecasts are updated every day (00:00 UTC) using the last 90 days of daily close prices. Viewing these forecasts is possible by visiting our trading terminal at shrimpy.io.

Sign up for Shrimpy to try them out by clicking here.

Nomics ML Strategy

The Nomics ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Nomics ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

image-20210907-024024.png

Nomics has, yet again, taken the top spot for performance this week with an impressive +18.72% over the last 7 days.

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the third week of this study.

  1. Celo (CELO): Projected 7-day profit: +244.32%

  2. Tezos (XTZ): Projected 7-day profit: +42.93%

  3. Solana (SOL): Projected 7-day profit: +37.48%

  4. Terra (LUNA): Projected 7-day profit: +16.75%

  5. Decentraland (MANA): Projected 7-day profit: +15.90%

  6. Binance Coin (BNB): Projected 7-day profit: +6.59%

  7. NEO (NEO): Projected 7-day profit: +5%

  8. Cosmos (ATOM): Projected 7-day profit: +4.73%

  9. Stacks (STX): Projected 7-day profit: +4.32%

  10. Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +4.20%

The average projected 7-day profit is +38.22%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the fourth week of this study.

  1. Solana(SOL): Projected 7-day profit: +51.47%

  2. Litecoin(LTC): Projected 7-day profit: +40.61%

  3. Algorand(Algo): Projected 7-day profit: +35.58%

  4. IOST(IOST): Projected 7-day profit: +33.98%

  5. Harmony(ONE): Projected 7-day profit: +31.61%

  6. Chainlink(LINK): Projected 7-day profit: +29.90%

  7. NEM(XEM): Projected 7-day profit: +27.91%

  8. Polkadot(DOT): Projected 7-day profit: +25.51%

  9. OMG Network(OMG): Projected 7-day profit: +25.48%

  10. Kusama(KSM): Projected 7-day profit: +24.17%

The average projected 7-day profit is +32.62%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Nomics ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Decentralized Finance Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap DeFi Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Decentralized Finance asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The DeFi index had a solid week that saw Chainlink moving up in the index rankings while Tezos and Fantom replaced Sushiswap and Compound.

The DeFi index had a solid week that saw Chainlink moving up in the index rankings while Tezos and Fantom replaced Sushiswap and Compound.

Portfolio Allocations

  1. Uniswap (UNI): 20.74% Allocation (adjusted from 22.15%)

  2. Chainlink (LINK): 18.30% Allocation (adjusted from 15.18%)

  3. Terra (LUNA): 15.09% Allocation (adjusted from 18.11%)

  4. Avalanche (AVAX): 11.92% Allocation (adjusted from 9.92%)

  5. Pancake Swap (CAKE): 6.33% Allocation (adjusted from 6.75%)

  6. AAVE (AAVE): 6.23% Allocation (adjusted from 6.34%)

  7. The Graph (GRT): 5.77% Allocation (adjusted from 6.11%)

  8. Tezos (XTZ): 5.62% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)

  9. Maker (MKR): 5% Allocation

  10. Fantom (FTM): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)

Removed

  1. Sushiswap (SUSHI)

  2. Compound (COMP)

Portfolio Starting Value

The DeFi Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Smart Contracts Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap Smart Contracts Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Smart Contracts asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

image-20210907-024100.png

The Smart Contracts index came in a very close second this week, carried largely by the performance of Ethereum and Cardano. Tezos was brought in to replace NEO.

Portfolio Allocations

  1. Ethereum (ETH): 24.99% Allocation (adjusted from 25.01%)

  2. Cardano (ADA): 25% Allocation

  3. Chainlink (LINK): 9.97% Allocation (adjusted from 9.36%)

  4. Avalanche (AVAX): 6.49% Allocation (adjusted from 6.11%)

  5. Stellar (XLM): 6.29% Allocation (adjusted from 6.69%)

  6. VeChain (VET): 6.21% Allocation (adjusted from 6.31%)

  7. Ethereum Classic (ETC): 6.05% Allocation (adjusted from 6.52%)

  8. Tezos (XTZ): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)

  9. Algorand (ALGO): 5% Allocation

  10. EOS (EOS): 5% Allocation

Removed

  1. NEO (NEO)

Portfolio Starting Value

The Smart Contracts Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Conclusions

Nomics has come out of the gate swinging and clearly separated itself from the pack. With picks like Solana and Cardano breaking past all time highs and into new price discovery - it’s little wonder why we find Nomics on top at this point in time. That said, asset selection and allocation within the indices are beginning to shift which could potentially shake up performance rankings in the coming weeks.

We recommend you check back every week to see how the results are progressing! To keep up to date with the latest articles, you can also join our Discord Group or follow us on Twitter.

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InvestorMarko Mihajlovićdata, machinelearning, notlatest, topsectionComment