Machine Learning for Crypto Portfolio Management Case Study: Week 14
Over the last three months, our team has been tracking the performance of 4 different portfolio strategies. These include portfolios selected using Nomics Machine Learning, CoinGecko, market-cap indexing, and a simple Bitcoin HODL.
While Bitcoin stalled this week, Nomics continued its recovery with a vengeance as it saw an impressive rally throughout the entire week.
Bitcoin is the worst performing portfolio, while Nomics remains on top. Keep reading for the rest of the discussion!
Reminder: The methodology for this study was first outlined in our previous article.
Follow the progress of this study on Shrimpy.
Week 13 Results
The study so far has been a steady mix of shock and awe. This last week proved to be another crowning example of Nomics command of this study to date. We continue to see exceptional results from the machine learning strategy, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.
The question remains: will Bitcoin performance ever be able to catch up to the Nomics ML Study?
#1 Bitcoin
Bitcoin saw mediocre performance this last week as it broke out early in the week, but then stalled throughout the rest of the week. The volatility of the last few weeks are exciting since we had a rather long period of uneventful price movements for Bitcoin in the previous months.
Bitcoin remains the worst performing portfolio in this study.
Final Bitcoin portfolio value: $1,383.88.
#2 Top 10 Index
Due to the mediocre performance of Bitcoin, it was expected that a portfolio based on a market-weighted index would also experience similar performance over the course of the last week since Bitcoin held approximately 72% of the value in the portfolio.
As the portfolio continues to rebalance, we will be able to better understand how the portfolio will deviate from the simple Bitcoin HODL portfolio.
Final Top 10 Index portfolio value: $1,485.75.
#3 Coin Gecko
The Coin Gecko portfolio experienced relatively good performance results over the last week. This could be attributed to the two stars of the show - Chainlink and NEO.
The biggest winners selected by the Coin Gecko strategy:
Chainlink (LINK): +39.50% Last 7 days
NEO (NEO): +14.42% Last 7 days
There were no major losers this week for the Coin Gecko strategy:
There were no losers this week for the Coin Gecko strategy. All of the assets were positive or nearly positive last week (XRP and XLM were close to 0% performance for the week). Coin Gecko is now the second-best performing portfolio since the beginning of this study.
Final Coin Gecko portfolio value: $1,589.83.
#4 Nomics ML
The Nomics Machine Learning strategy has kept the powerful streak going. With a projected profit of 32.46% for last week and an actual profit of 34.38%, we can only say that Nomics nailed it again this week.
The biggest winners selected by the Nomics ML strategy include:
Band Protocol (BAND): +243.34% Last 7 days
Chainlink (LINK): +46.09% Last 7 days
Swipe (SXP): +29.34% Last 7 days
The biggest loser selected by the Nomics ML strategy was:
Ark (ARK): -16.17% Last 7 days
MCO (MCO): -7.56% Last 7 days
XRP (XRP): -7.28% Last 7 days
Overall, this week saw mostly great asset selections. The three assets that performed negatively were Ark, MCO, and XRP.
Final Nomics ML portfolio value: $3,019.57.
Conclusions
The Nomics ML strategy has maintained a steady lead over the other strategies since the second week of this study. This last week was a great continuation of the recovery from the poor performance we experienced three weeks ago. We can’t wait to see what the next weeks bring. We cannot use this to predict future performance, but the results are exciting.
Note: The purpose of this study is to evaluate each of these strategies over the long-term. We cannot yet draw any conclusions for the long-term potential of these strategies after only a few months. As a result, we should take these results with a grain of salt.
Week 14 Strategy Changes
Now that we have covered the results from the last week, it’s time to break down how we will change each of these portfolios for the coming week.
Nomics ML Strategy
The Nomics ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Nomics ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.
Portfolio Allocations
The following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the portfolio value for the second week of this study.
1. Band Protocol (BAND)
Projected 7-day profit: +232.14%
2. Decentraland (MANA)
Projected 7-day profit: +120.22%
3. Kava (KAVA)
Projected 7-day profit: +74.66%
4. Algorand (ALGO)
Projected 7-day profit: +54.45%
5. iExec RLC (RLC)
Projected 7-day profit: +40.49%
6. Blockstack (STX)
Projected 7-day profit: +39.78%
7. Tezos (XTZ)
Projected 7-day profit: +37.78%
8. Chainlink (LINK)
Projected 7-day profit: +37.35%
9. Cosmos (ATOM)
Projected 7-day profit: +36.87%
10. Zilliqa (ZIL)
Projected 7-day profit: +34.97%
Reminder: We are only including the assets that are available on Binance in this portfolio.
The average performance estimate is 70.871% for the next 7 days for this portfolio. This is one of the most aggressive estimates we’ve had to date.
Coin Gecko Score Strategy
The Coin Gecko Score Strategy uses the “Gecko” score that is calculated by the popular data site “CoinGecko”. These asset scores are used to determine the most promising long-term assets that should be included in a portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.
Update: Unfortunately, sometime over the last few weeks, Coin Gecko has decided to stop publishing a “Gecko” score. We are unsure why this is the case, but this will force us to use the last “Gecko” score we were able to collect from their website.
Portfolio Allocations
The following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the portfolio value for the first week of this study.
1. Bitcoin (BTC) - Last Available Score: 82%
2. Ethereum (ETH) - Last Available Score: 74%
3. EOS (EOS) - Last Available Score: 68%
4. XRP (XRP) - Last Available Score: 67%
5. Stellar (XLM) - Last Available Score: 65%
6. Bitcoin Cash (BCH) - Last Available Score: 65%
7. TRON (TRX) - Last Available Score: 64%
8. Chainlink (LINK) - Last Available Score: 64%
9. NEO (NEO) - Last Available Score: 63%
10. Monero (XMR) - Last Available Score: 63%
Note: From now until the end of the study, the Coin Gecko assets will remain the same. All assets will maintain a 10% allocation and rebalance to re-align current allocations with the target allocations.
Coin Market Cap Index Strategy
The Coin Market Cap Index Strategy uses the asset market caps that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.
Portfolio Allocations
The allocations for the Top 10 Index portfolio strategy will be the following this week.
1. Bitcoin (BTC): 72.96% Allocation
2. Ethereum (ETH): 14.74% Allocation
3. XRP (XRP): 3.24% Allocation
4. Bitcoin Cash (BCH): 1.86% Allocation
5. Chainlink (LINK): 1.55% Allocation
6. Litecoin (LTC): 1.27% Allocation
7. Cardano (ADA): 1.24% Allocation
8. Binance Coin (BNB): 1.08% Allocation
9. Tezos (XTZ): 1.06% Allocation
10. EOS (EOS): 1.00% Allocation
Note: No new assets were added or removed from last week’s index. We will just adjust the allocations to match the new percentages and execute a single rebalance operation.
Bitcoin Hold Strategy
The most simple of the strategies we will be exploring is a simple Bitcoin HODL. The Bitcoin HODL strategy will allow us to benchmark these other strategies against the price performance of Bitcoin. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.
Portfolio Allocations
100% Bitcoin
Note: There will be no changes or rebalances for the Bitcoin HODL portfolio.
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