This was the fifth week of our case study that will evaluate the application of machine learning for portfolio management. The methodology for this study was first outlined in our previous article.

Each week, we will publish an update to highlight interesting events that took place over the last week, break down the performance metrics from the last week, and provide any changes that will be made to each portfolio.

The Cryptocurrency market is not immune to the pain felt this week by traditional markets. While all portfolios have experienced a significant reduction in performance, Nomics has been making some great picks and is still leading the pack by a wide margin. Shrimpy Machine Learning and the Decentralized Finance Index are nearly tied for last place.

Shrimpy ML Strategy

The Shrimpy ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Shrimpy ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

While currently seeing the lowest overall performance, Shrimpy had a great week under severely bearish conditions and performed the best of the 4 portfolios this week, outperforming BTC’s -6.26% for the week at the time of publishing. Could this be a turning point Shrimpy’s Machine Learning models?

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the fourth week of this study.

Revain (R): Projected 7-day profit: +210.52%
Presearch (PRE): Projected 7-day profit: +98.53%
Kadena (KDA): Projected 7-day profit: +85.05%
Zel (FLUX): Projected 7-day profit: +80.51%
Avalaunch (XAVA): Projected 7-day profit: +70.33%
Seedify.fund (SFUND): Projected 7-day profit: +69.46%
Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +58.32%
Avalanche (AVAX): Projected 7-day profit: +54.97%
Cashaa (CAS): Projected 7-day profit: +52.41%
Layer (LAYER): Projected 7-day profit: +51.00%

The average projected 7-day profit is +83.11%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the fifth week of this study.

APENFT (NFT): Projected 7-day profit: +582.33%
Oasis Network (ROSE): Projected 7-day profit: +262.50%
Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +116.39%
MoonStarter (MNST): Projected 7-day profit: +92.31%
Algorand (ALGO): Projected 7-day profit: +83.91%
Ren (REN): Projected 7-day profit: +67.86%
Tezos (XTZ): Projected 7-day profit: +62.00%
Horizen (ZEN): Projected 7-day profit: +61.40%
V-ID (VIDT): Projected 7-day profit: 56.93%
Quant (QNT): Projected 7-day profit: +50.10%

The average projected 7-day profit is +143.57%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Shrimpy ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Try the Shrimpy ML Forecasts

Disclaimer: Shrimpy’s price forecasts are for entertainment purposes only.

Shrimpy offers machine learning price forecasts for all customers. These forecasts are generated using our own Machine Learning models, and price forecasts are updated every day (00:00 UTC) using the last 90 days of daily close prices. Viewing these forecasts is possible by visiting our trading terminal at shrimpy.io.

Sign up for Shrimpy to try them out by clicking here.

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Nomics ML Strategy

The Nomics ML Strategy leverages the 7-day price predictions generated by the Nomics ML engine. These price predictions are then used to determine which assets should be placed into our portfolio for this week. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

Nomics Machine Learning models had a rough week as there were not enough good picks to overcome the bearishness of BTC, but this portfolio has performed very well in the past and still leads in overall performance.

Portfolio Allocations

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the fourth week of this study.

Quant (QNT): Projected 7-day profit: +69.16%
NEAR Protocol(NEAR): Projected 7-day profit: +52.53%
Harmony (ONE): Projected 7-day profit: +50.45%
Solana (SOL): Projected 7-day profit: +40.52%
Fantom (FTM): Projected 7-day profit: +40.11%
Terra(LUNA): Projected 7-day profit: +29.63%
OMG Network (OMG): Projected 7-day profit: +27.08%
Avalanche (AVAX): Projected 7-day profit: +20.11%
Cosmos (ATOM): Projected 7-day profit: +15.33%
IOST (IOST): Projected 7-day profit: +15.31%

The average projected 7-day profit is +36.02%.

Each of the following assets were allocated exactly 10% of the total portfolio value for the fifth week of this study.

Celo (CELO): Projected 7-day profit: +22.14%
Shiba Inu (SHIB): Projected 7-day profit: +18.30%
Avalanche (AVAX): Projected 7-day profit: +17.89%
NEAR Protocol (NEAR): Projected 7-day profit: +14.90%
PancakeSwap (CAKE): Projected 7-day profit: +11.90%
Curve DAO Token (CRV): Projected 7-day profit: +10.91%
Sushiswap (SUSHI): Projected 7-day profit: +6.32%
Crypto.com Coin (CRO): Projected 7-day profit: +3.76%
OMG Network (OMG): Projected 7-day profit: +2.67%
AAVE (AAVE): Projected 7-day profit: +2.65%

The average projected 7-day profit is +11.14%.

Portfolio Starting Value

The Nomics ML Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Decentralized Finance Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap DeFi Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Decentralized Finance asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

The Decentralized Finance market was hit especially hard during this particular drop in BTC’s price, and the DeFi index is only slightly ahead of the Shrimpy portfolio in overall performance.

Portfolio Allocations

Avalanche (AVAX): 19.53% Allocation (adjusted from 9.92%)
Uniswap (UNI): 17.59% Allocation (adjusted from 22.15%)
Terra (LUNA): 15.42% Allocation (adjusted from 18.11%)
Chainlink (LINK): 14.82% Allocation (adjusted from 15.18%)
Tezos (XTZ): 6.20% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
Pancake Swap (CAKE): 6.05% Allocation (adjusted from 6.75%)
AAVE (AAVE): 5.39% Allocation (adjusted from 6.34%)
The Graph (GRT): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.11%)
Maker (MKR): 5% Allocation
Fantom (FTM): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)

Removed

Compound (COMP)
Sushiswap (SUSHI)

Portfolio Starting Value

The DeFi Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Smart Contracts Index Strategy

The Coin Market Cap Smart Contracts Index Strategy uses the asset market caps combined with the Smart Contracts asset tag that are calculated by “CoinMarketCap” to determine which assets should be included in the portfolio. Additional information regarding the methodology can be found in our previous article.

Taking last in performance for the week, the Smart Contracts market has definitely cooled off after seeing explosive gains over the past few weeks.

Portfolio Allocations

Ethereum (ETH): 25% Allocation (adjusted from 25.01%)
Cardano (ADA): 25% Allocation
Avalanche (AVAX): 10.14% Allocation (adjusted from 6.11%)
Chainlink (LINK): 7.8% Allocation (adjusted from 9.36%)
Algorand (ALGO): 7.06% Allocation (adjusted from 5%)
EOS (EOS): 5% Allocation
Tezos (XTZ): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 0%)
VeChain (VET): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.31%)
Stellar (XLM): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.69%)
Ethereum Classic (ETC): 5% Allocation (adjusted from 6.52%)

Removed

NEO (NEO)

Portfolio Starting Value

The Smart Contracts Index Strategy was allocated exactly 1,000 USDT at the start of this study.

Conclusions

BTC is king, not in that it is the best (which is arguable) but in that it dictates price movements in everything else. With BTC losing nearly 7% in a week, it’s no surprise that pain has been amplified and radiated into the rest of the market. Nomics and the Decentralized Finance Index have been performing well under bullish conditions, while Shrimpy Machine Learning models have been navigating BTC price dips with relative ease. With many analysts predicting a run to new all time highs in the near future for BTC, it’s exciting to see what the coming weeks and months bring and how the rest of the market will react to BTC potentially testing new highs.

We recommend you check back every week to see how the results are progressing! To keep up to date with the latest articles, you can also join our Discord Group or follow us on Twitter.

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